Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1):
Vic Wulsin (D): 39
Jean Schmidt (R-inc): 46
Other: 7
(MoE: ±5%)
We’ve seen a flurry of polls from this race in recent days. A week ago, SurveyUSA found Mean Jean ahead by 48-40, followed by a Momentum Analysis internal for Wulsin showing a 37-36 Schmidt lead, and topped off with a Schmidt internal from the Tarrance Group giving the incumbent a 52-36 lead.
This poll basically splits the difference between the two campaigns’ numbers. While it also finds that Schmidt continues to post weak favorables (41-43), Wulsin’s aren’t much better (41-42). But in an anti-incumbent wave election, it’s possible for a gap like this to close — after all, Schmidt was leading by five points in the last poll before the 2006 elections, and Wulsin ended up losing by only two percent. That task becomes harder with GOP coattails in a conservative R+13 district like this one, but here’s a sign of hope: McCain is only leading Obama here by 52-41. That’s a far cry from the 64-36 drubbing that Bush gave to John Kerry here in 2004.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
I guess we’ll have to wait & see. OH-02 has always frustrated me. We come so close, but for some reason we can’t close the deal. Perhaps OH-02 will be different this year? I’m not sure, but we’ll see.
that most of the undecideds in the district will also end up going for McCain.